Is UGP or VG more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) and Venture Global, Inc. (VG) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. UGP has a Quality of Company score of 9.3/10 while VG scores 6.9/10.

Which is a better buy — UGP or VG?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do UGP and VG valuations compare?

UGP at $5.18 and VG at $12.04 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

UGP vs VG Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

UGP

Natural Gas Distribution

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne

Quality

9.3

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$5.18

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

VG

Natural Gas Distribution

Venture Global, Inc.

Quality

6.9

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$12.04

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	UGP Fair Value	UGP Upside	VG Fair Value	VG Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$3.05	-41.1%	$43.90	+264.6%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$4.07	-21.4%	$0.33	-97.4%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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UGP vs VG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

UGP scores higher with a 9.3/10 quality rating vs VG's 6.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) and Venture Global, Inc. (VG) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

UGP currently trades at $5.18 with a QOC of 9.3/10, while VG trades at $12.04 with a QOC of 6.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).