TW vs XP

Tradeweb Markets Inc. vs XP Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — TW scores higher on quality with 10.0/10 vs XP's 2.0/10. TW trades at $97.98 while XP trades at $16.20. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

TW

Capital Markets
Tradeweb Markets Inc.
Quality
10.0
out of 10
Value Trap
18
SAFE
Price
$97.98
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
VS

XP

Capital Markets
XP Inc.
Quality
2.0
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$16.20
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
TW
Quality Score 10.0/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
XP
2 models active
Quality 2.0/10 — below average

TW vs XP — Fair Value Comparison

TW
$0$39$77$116 Price$97.98 Bayesian …$95.70 (-2.3%) Earnings …$40.80 (-58.4%)
XP
$0$6$13$19 Price$16.20 Bayesian …$4.69 (-71.1%) Earnings …$8.95 (-54.7%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType TW Fair ValueTW Upside XP Fair ValueXP Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $95.70 -2.3% $4.69 -71.1%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $40.80 -58.4% $8.95 -54.7%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

TW vs XP — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

TW scores higher with a 10.0/10 quality rating vs XP's 2.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do TW and XP Valuations Compare?

At $97.98, TW trades +2.3% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $95.70, while XP at $16.20 trades +71.1% above its estimate of $4.69. XP shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: TW vs XP

TW earns a Quality of Company score of 10.0/10 compared to XP's 2.0/10. This is a significant quality gap — the higher-scoring company demonstrates materially stronger fundamentals across profitability, growth consistency, and balance sheet health. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: TW vs XP

Review the value trap analysis for both TW and XP to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Capital Markets

Both TW and XP operate in Capital Markets, which has 86 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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