Is TPST or TVRD more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) and Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. TPST has a Quality of Company score of 3.2/10 while TVRD scores 4.1/10.

Which is a better buy — TPST or TVRD?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do TPST and TVRD valuations compare?

TPST at $1.53 and TVRD at $3.38 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

TPST vs TVRD Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

TPST

Pharmaceutical Preparations

Tempest Therapeutics, Inc.

Quality

3.2

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$1.53

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

TVRD

Pharmaceutical Preparations

Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.

Quality

4.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$3.38

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TPST Fair Value	TPST Upside	TVRD Fair Value	TVRD Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$0.34	-78.1%	$2.17	-28.9%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$5.58	+264.8%	$3.04	-3.1%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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TPST vs TVRD — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

TVRD scores higher with a 4.1/10 quality rating vs TPST's 3.2/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) and Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

TPST currently trades at $1.53 with a QOC of 3.2/10, while TVRD trades at $3.38 with a QOC of 4.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).