Is TONX or UPST more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares TON Strategy Company (TONX) and Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. TONX has a Quality of Company score of 4.8/10 while UPST scores 6.8/10.

Which is a better buy — TONX or UPST?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do TONX and UPST valuations compare?

TONX at $3.98 and UPST at $33.79 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

TONX vs UPST Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

TONX

Finance Services

TON Strategy Company

Quality

4.8

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$3.98

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

UPST

Finance Services

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

Quality

6.8

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$33.79

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TONX Fair Value	TONX Upside	UPST Fair Value	UPST Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.22	-69.3%	$3.89	-88.5%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$10.98	-67.5%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$3.50	-12.0%	—	—
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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TONX vs UPST — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

UPST scores higher with a 6.8/10 quality rating vs TONX's 4.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing TON Strategy Company (TONX) and Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

TONX currently trades at $3.98 with a QOC of 4.8/10, while UPST trades at $33.79 with a QOC of 6.8/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).