Is TMC or USAR more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) and USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. TMC has a Quality of Company score of 3.6/10 while USAR scores 5.5/10.

Which is a better buy — TMC or USAR?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do TMC and USAR valuations compare?

TMC at $6.05 and USAR at $28.01 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

TMC vs USAR Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

TMC

Metal Mining

TMC the metals company Inc.

Quality

3.6

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$6.05

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

USAR

Metal Mining

USA Rare Earth, Inc.

Quality

5.5

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$28.01

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TMC Fair Value	TMC Upside	USAR Fair Value	USAR Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.67	-72.4%	$11.62	-58.5%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$0.34	-93.6%	$2.95	-88.8%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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TMC vs USAR — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

USAR scores higher with a 5.5/10 quality rating vs TMC's 3.6/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) and USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

TMC currently trades at $6.05 with a QOC of 3.6/10, while USAR trades at $28.01 with a QOC of 5.5/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).