TLPH vs TLRY Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

Quick Summary — TLRY scores higher on quality with 6.8/10 vs TLPH's 5.6/10. TLPH trades at $0.78 while TLRY trades at $5.38. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

TLPH

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Talphera, Inc.

Quality

5.6

out of 10

Value Trap

51

WARN

Price

$0.78

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

VS

TLRY

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Tilray Brands, Inc.

Quality

6.8

out of 10

Value Trap

45

WARN

Price

$5.38

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

TLPH

2 models active

Value Trap 51/100 — caution

TLRY

Dynamic NAV sees +32.1% upside

Value Trap 45/100 — caution

TLPH vs TLRY — Fair Value Comparison

TLPH

TLRY

Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TLPH Fair Value	TLPH Upside	TLRY Fair Value	TLRY Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$0.24	-68.9%	$1.53	-71.5%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$0.68	-12.7%	$7.11	+32.1%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

TLPH vs TLRY — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

TLRY scores higher with a 6.8/10 quality rating vs TLPH's 5.6/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do TLPH and TLRY Valuations Compare?

At $0.78, TLPH trades +68.9% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.24, while TLRY at $5.38 trades +71.5% above its estimate of $1.53. TLRY shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: TLPH vs TLRY

TLPH earns a Quality of Company score of 5.6/10 compared to TLRY's 6.8/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: TLPH vs TLRY

TLPH carries a WARN value trap risk (51/100) while TLRY shows WARN risk (45/100). Stocks with value trap scores above 40 may appear undervalued but face deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue can make the apparent discount a trap.

Both in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Both TLPH and TLRY operate in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic, which has 79 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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TLPH

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TLRY

View Full Tilray Brands, Inc. Analysis →

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