Is TLN or VST more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) and Vistra Corp. (VST) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. TLN has a Quality of Company score of 4.7/10 while VST scores 7.3/10.

Which is a better buy — TLN or VST?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do TLN and VST valuations compare?

TLN at $386.80 and VST at $160.23 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

TLN vs VST Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

TLN

Electric Services

Talen Energy Corporation

Quality

4.7

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$386.80

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

VST

Electric Services

Vistra Corp.

Quality

7.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$160.23

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TLN Fair Value	TLN Upside	VST Fair Value	VST Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$102.74	-73.4%	$100.74	-36.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$2.78	-98.3%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$21.52	-94.4%	$119.53	-25.4%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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TLN vs VST — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

VST scores higher with a 7.3/10 quality rating vs TLN's 4.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) and Vistra Corp. (VST) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

TLN currently trades at $386.80 with a QOC of 4.7/10, while VST trades at $160.23 with a QOC of 7.3/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).