TIL vs TNXP

Instil Bio, Inc. vs Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding C — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — TNXP scores higher on quality with 6.1/10 vs TIL's 4.4/10. TIL trades at $8.11 while TNXP trades at $11.72. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

TIL

Biotechnology
Instil Bio, Inc.
Quality
4.4
out of 10
Value Trap
24
SAFE
Price
$8.11
Last close
Models
7/13
Active
VS

TNXP

Biotechnology
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding C
Quality
6.1
out of 10
Value Trap
27
LOW
Price
$11.72
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
TIL
Dynamic NAV sees +59.2% upside
Quality 4.4/10 — below average
TNXP
Earnings Power Value sees +51.8% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

TIL vs TNXP — Fair Value Comparison

TIL
$0$5$10$15 Price$8.11 Bayesian …$2.52 (-68.9%) Dynamic N…$12.91 (+59.2%)
TNXP
$0$8$16$24 Price$11.72 Bayesian …$9.21 (-21.4%) Earnings …$20.65 (+51.8%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType TIL Fair ValueTIL Upside TNXP Fair ValueTNXP Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $2.52 -68.9% $9.21 -21.4%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $20.65 +51.8%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $12.91 +59.2% $15.90 +35.6%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

TIL vs TNXP — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

TNXP scores higher with a 6.1/10 quality rating vs TIL's 4.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do TIL and TNXP Valuations Compare?

At $8.11, TIL trades +68.9% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.52, while TNXP at $11.72 trades +21.4% above its estimate of $9.21. TIL shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: TIL vs TNXP

TIL earns a Quality of Company score of 4.4/10 compared to TNXP's 6.1/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: TIL vs TNXP

TIL carries a SAFE value trap risk (24/100) while TNXP shows LOW risk (27/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Biotechnology

Both TIL and TNXP operate in Biotechnology, which has 566 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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