TCBX vs TFSL

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. vs TFS Financial Corporation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — TCBX scores higher on quality with 9.0/10 vs TFSL's 6.0/10. TCBX trades at $38.16 while TFSL trades at $16.05. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

TCBX

Banks - Regional
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.
Quality
9.0
out of 10
Value Trap
22
SAFE
Price
$38.16
Last close
Models
10/13
Active
VS

TFSL

Banks - Regional
TFS Financial Corporation
Quality
6.0
out of 10
Value Trap
12
SAFE
Price
$16.05
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
TCBX
Earnings Power Value sees +48.1% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
TFSL
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models

TCBX vs TFSL — Fair Value Comparison

TCBX
$0$22$44$67 Price$38.16 Bayesian …$33.92 (-11.1%) Earnings …$56.51 (+48.1%)
TFSL
$0$6$13$19 Price$16.05 Bayesian …$2.11 (-86.9%) Earnings …$3.64 (-77.3%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType TCBX Fair ValueTCBX Upside TFSL Fair ValueTFSL Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $33.92 -11.1% $2.11 -86.9%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $56.51 +48.1% $3.64 -77.3%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

TCBX vs TFSL — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

TCBX scores higher with a 9.0/10 quality rating vs TFSL's 6.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do TCBX and TFSL Valuations Compare?

At $38.16, TCBX trades +11.1% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $33.92, while TFSL at $16.05 trades +86.9% above its estimate of $2.11. TFSL shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: TCBX vs TFSL

TCBX earns a Quality of Company score of 9.0/10 compared to TFSL's 6.0/10. This is a significant quality gap — the higher-scoring company demonstrates materially stronger fundamentals across profitability, growth consistency, and balance sheet health. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: TCBX vs TFSL

TCBX carries a SAFE value trap risk (22/100) while TFSL shows SAFE risk (12/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Banks - Regional

Both TCBX and TFSL operate in Banks - Regional, which has 329 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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