Is SPCE or VWAV more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) and VisionWave Holdings, Inc. (VWAV) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. SPCE has a Quality of Company score of 5.3/10 while VWAV scores 4.0/10.

Which is a better buy — SPCE or VWAV?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do SPCE and VWAV valuations compare?

SPCE at $4.53 and VWAV at $6.07 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

SPCE vs VWAV Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

SPCE

Aerospace & Defense

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.

Quality

5.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$4.53

Last close

Models

5/13

Active

VWAV

Aerospace & Defense

VisionWave Holdings, Inc.

Quality

4.0

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$6.07

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	SPCE Fair Value	SPCE Upside	VWAV Fair Value	VWAV Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$0.33	-92.7%	$1.59	-73.9%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$2.46	-45.7%	$0.09	-98.6%
PWERM	Option-Based	$6.51	+43.8%	$6.17	+1.7%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

🔒

Unlock Full 13-Model Comparison

Access all valuation models for SPCE vs VWAV — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more.

Access Full Analysis — From $27/mo →

SPCE vs VWAV — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

SPCE scores higher with a 5.3/10 quality rating vs VWAV's 4.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) and VisionWave Holdings, Inc. (VWAV) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

SPCE currently trades at $4.53 with a QOC of 5.3/10, while VWAV trades at $6.07 with a QOC of 4.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).