SMFG vs UBS

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group vs UBS Group AG Registered — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — SMFG scores higher on quality with 7.2/10 vs UBS's 2.1/10. SMFG trades at $22.74 while UBS trades at $48.16. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

SMFG

Banks - Diversified
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
Quality
7.2
out of 10
Value Trap
26
LOW
Price
$22.74
Last close
Models
10/13
Active
VS

UBS

Banks - Diversified
UBS Group AG Registered
Quality
2.1
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$48.16
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
SMFG
Earnings Power Value sees +410.2% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
UBS
Earnings Power Value sees +204.1% upside
Quality 2.1/10 — below average

SMFG vs UBS — Fair Value Comparison

SMFG
$0$46$91$137 Price$22.74 Earnings …$116.03 (+410.2%) First Chi…$92.18 (+305.4%)
UBS
$0$54$108$162 Price$48.16 Bayesian …$16.69 (-65.3%) Earnings …$137.48 (+204.1%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType SMFG Fair ValueSMFG Upside UBS Fair ValueUBS Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $16.69 -65.3%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $116.03 +410.2% $137.48 +204.1%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $92.18 +305.4% $52.27 +10.9%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

SMFG vs UBS — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

SMFG scores higher with a 7.2/10 quality rating vs UBS's 2.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do SMFG and UBS Valuations Compare?

SMFG currently trades at $22.74 while UBS trades at $48.16. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily for both companies.

Quality of Company: SMFG vs UBS

SMFG earns a Quality of Company score of 7.2/10 compared to UBS's 2.1/10. This is a significant quality gap — the higher-scoring company demonstrates materially stronger fundamentals across profitability, growth consistency, and balance sheet health. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: SMFG vs UBS

Review the value trap analysis for both SMFG and UBS to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Banks - Diversified

Both SMFG and UBS operate in Banks - Diversified, which has 17 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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