Is SFNC or STEL more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Simmons First National Corporat (SFNC) and Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. SFNC has a Quality of Company score of 6.9/10 while STEL scores 8.1/10.

Which is a better buy — SFNC or STEL?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do SFNC and STEL valuations compare?

SFNC at $21.45 and STEL at $37.34 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

SFNC vs STEL Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

SFNC

National Commercial Banks

Simmons First National Corporat

Quality

6.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$21.45

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

STEL

National Commercial Banks

Stellar Bancorp, Inc.

Quality

8.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$37.34

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	SFNC Fair Value	SFNC Upside	STEL Fair Value	STEL Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$17.65	-17.7%	$19.89	-46.7%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$18.89	-11.9%	$33.63	-9.9%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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SFNC vs STEL — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

STEL scores higher with a 8.1/10 quality rating vs SFNC's 6.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Simmons First National Corporat (SFNC) and Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

SFNC currently trades at $21.45 with a QOC of 6.9/10, while STEL trades at $37.34 with a QOC of 8.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).