RYAAY vs SRFM

Ryanair Holdings plc vs Surf Air Mobility Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — RYAAY scores higher on quality with 8.8/10 vs SRFM's 4.8/10. RYAAY trades at $58.72 while SRFM trades at $1.13. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

RYAAY

Airlines
Ryanair Holdings plc
Quality
8.8
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$58.72
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
VS

SRFM

Airlines
Surf Air Mobility Inc.
Quality
4.8
out of 10
Value Trap
18
SAFE
Price
$1.13
Last close
Models
6/13
Active
RYAAY
Quality Score 8.8/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
SRFM
PWERM sees +125.0% upside
Quality 4.8/10 — below average

RYAAY vs SRFM — Fair Value Comparison

RYAAY
$0$23$46$69 Price$58.72 Bayesian …$51.39 (-12.5%) Earnings …$53.38 (-9.1%)
SRFM
$0$1$2$3 Price$1.13 Bayesian …$0.18 (-83.6%) PWERM$2.54 (+125.0%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType RYAAY Fair ValueRYAAY Upside SRFM Fair ValueSRFM Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $51.39 -12.5% $0.18 -83.6%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $53.38 -9.1%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $75.13 +27.9% $2.54 +125.0%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

RYAAY vs SRFM — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

RYAAY scores higher with a 8.8/10 quality rating vs SRFM's 4.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do RYAAY and SRFM Valuations Compare?

At $58.72, RYAAY trades +12.5% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $51.39, while SRFM at $1.13 trades +83.6% above its estimate of $0.18. SRFM shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: RYAAY vs SRFM

RYAAY earns a Quality of Company score of 8.8/10 compared to SRFM's 4.8/10. This is a significant quality gap — the higher-scoring company demonstrates materially stronger fundamentals across profitability, growth consistency, and balance sheet health. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: RYAAY vs SRFM

RYAAY carries a SAFE value trap risk (6/100) while SRFM shows SAFE risk (18/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Airlines

Both RYAAY and SRFM operate in Airlines, which has 17 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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