Is RIO or TMC more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) and TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. RIO has a Quality of Company score of 2.2/10 while TMC scores 3.6/10.

Which is a better buy — RIO or TMC?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do RIO and TMC valuations compare?

RIO at $106.39 and TMC at $6.05 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

RIO vs TMC Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

RIO

Metal Mining

Rio Tinto Plc

Quality

2.2

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$106.39

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

TMC

Metal Mining

TMC the metals company Inc.

Quality

3.6

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$6.05

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	RIO Fair Value	RIO Upside	TMC Fair Value	TMC Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$28.86	-72.9%	$1.67	-72.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$47.89	-54.6%	$0.34	-93.6%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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RIO vs TMC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

TMC scores higher with a 3.6/10 quality rating vs RIO's 2.2/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) and TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

RIO currently trades at $106.39 with a QOC of 2.2/10, while TMC trades at $6.05 with a QOC of 3.6/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).