Is PKG or SW more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Packaging Corporation of Americ (PKG) and Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. PKG has a Quality of Company score of 8.4/10 while SW scores 7.7/10.

Which is a better buy — PKG or SW?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do PKG and SW valuations compare?

PKG at $218.91 and SW at $41.15 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

PKG vs SW Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

PKG

Paperboard Containers & Boxes

Packaging Corporation of Americ

Quality

8.4

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$218.91

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

SW

Paperboard Containers & Boxes

Smurfit WestRock plc

Quality

7.7

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$41.15

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	PKG Fair Value	PKG Upside	SW Fair Value	SW Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$102.66	-53.1%	$39.54	-3.9%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$47.96	-78.1%	$2.16	-94.5%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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PKG vs SW — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

PKG scores higher with a 8.4/10 quality rating vs SW's 7.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Packaging Corporation of Americ (PKG) and Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

PKG currently trades at $218.91 with a QOC of 8.4/10, while SW trades at $41.15 with a QOC of 7.7/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).