Is ORGN or TROX more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) and Tronox Holdings plc (TROX) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ORGN has a Quality of Company score of 5.1/10 while TROX scores 6.3/10.

Which is a better buy — ORGN or TROX?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ORGN and TROX valuations compare?

ORGN at $1.51 and TROX at $8.30 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ORGN vs TROX Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ORGN

Chemicals

Origin Materials, Inc.

Quality

5.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$1.51

Last close

Models

6/13

Active

TROX

Chemicals

Tronox Holdings plc

Quality

6.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$8.30

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ORGN Fair Value	ORGN Upside	TROX Fair Value	TROX Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$0.94	-37.4%	$2.26	-72.7%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$7.72	+417.9%	$1.40	-83.2%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$7.63	+405.4%	$23.96	+188.7%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

🔒

Unlock Full 13-Model Comparison

Access all valuation models for ORGN vs TROX — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more.

Access Full Analysis — From $27/mo →

ORGN vs TROX — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

TROX scores higher with a 6.3/10 quality rating vs ORGN's 5.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) and Tronox Holdings plc (TROX) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ORGN currently trades at $1.51 with a QOC of 5.1/10, while TROX trades at $8.30 with a QOC of 6.3/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).