Is ORGN or SAFX more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) and XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ORGN has a Quality of Company score of 5.1/10 while SAFX scores 4.4/10.

Which is a better buy — ORGN or SAFX?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ORGN and SAFX valuations compare?

ORGN at $1.49 and SAFX at $0.50 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ORGN vs SAFX Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ORGN

Industrial Organic Chemicals

Origin Materials, Inc.

Quality

5.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$1.49

Last close

Models

6/13

Active

SAFX

Industrial Organic Chemicals

XCF Global, Inc.

Quality

4.4

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$0.50

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ORGN Fair Value	ORGN Upside	SAFX Fair Value	SAFX Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$0.89	-40.0%	$1.33	+168.0%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$7.49	+403.0%	$1.13	+126.8%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	—	—	$2.39	+380.9%

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ORGN vs SAFX — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ORGN scores higher with a 5.1/10 quality rating vs SAFX's 4.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) and XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ORGN currently trades at $1.49 with a QOC of 5.1/10, while SAFX trades at $0.50 with a QOC of 4.4/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).