ONB vs ORRF

Old National Bancorp vs Orrstown Financial Services, In — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — ORRF scores higher on quality with 9.6/10 vs ONB's 8.9/10. ONB trades at $23.85 while ORRF trades at $37.58. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

ONB

Banks - Regional
Old National Bancorp
Quality
8.9
out of 10
Value Trap
18
SAFE
Price
$23.85
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
VS

ORRF

Banks - Regional
Orrstown Financial Services, In
Quality
9.6
out of 10
Value Trap
18
SAFE
Price
$37.58
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
ONB
Quality Score 8.9/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
ORRF
Earnings Power Value sees +26.1% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

ONB vs ORRF — Fair Value Comparison

ONB
$0$9$19$28 Price$23.85 Bayesian …$11.60 (-51.4%) Earnings …$15.89 (-33.4%)
ORRF
$0$19$37$56 Price$37.58 Bayesian …$24.13 (-35.8%) Earnings …$47.38 (+26.1%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType ONB Fair ValueONB Upside ORRF Fair ValueORRF Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $11.60 -51.4% $24.13 -35.8%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $15.89 -33.4% $47.38 +26.1%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

ONB vs ORRF — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

ORRF scores higher with a 9.6/10 quality rating vs ONB's 8.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do ONB and ORRF Valuations Compare?

At $23.85, ONB trades +51.4% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $11.60, while ORRF at $37.58 trades +35.8% above its estimate of $24.13. ONB shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: ONB vs ORRF

ONB earns a Quality of Company score of 8.9/10 compared to ORRF's 9.6/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: ONB vs ORRF

ONB carries a SAFE value trap risk (18/100) while ORRF shows SAFE risk (18/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Banks - Regional

Both ONB and ORRF operate in Banks - Regional, which has 329 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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