OBT vs ONB

Orange County Bancorp, Inc. vs Old National Bancorp — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — OBT scores higher on quality with 9.6/10 vs ONB's 8.9/10. OBT trades at $34.36 while ONB trades at $23.85. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

OBT

Banks - Regional
Orange County Bancorp, Inc.
Quality
9.6
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$34.36
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

ONB

Banks - Regional
Old National Bancorp
Quality
8.9
out of 10
Value Trap
18
SAFE
Price
$23.85
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
OBT
Earnings Power Value sees +29.4% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
ONB
Quality Score 8.9/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

OBT vs ONB — Fair Value Comparison

OBT
$0$17$35$52 Price$34.36 Bayesian …$37.42 (+8.9%) Earnings …$44.45 (+29.4%)
ONB
$0$9$19$28 Price$23.85 Bayesian …$11.60 (-51.4%) Earnings …$15.89 (-33.4%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType OBT Fair ValueOBT Upside ONB Fair ValueONB Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $37.42 +8.9% $11.60 -51.4%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $44.45 +29.4% $15.89 -33.4%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

OBT vs ONB — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

OBT scores higher with a 9.6/10 quality rating vs ONB's 8.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do OBT and ONB Valuations Compare?

At $34.36, OBT trades +8.9% below its Bayesian DCF fair value of $37.42, while ONB at $23.85 trades +51.4% above its estimate of $11.60. ONB shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: OBT vs ONB

OBT earns a Quality of Company score of 9.6/10 compared to ONB's 8.9/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: OBT vs ONB

OBT carries a SAFE value trap risk (6/100) while ONB shows SAFE risk (18/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Banks - Regional

Both OBT and ONB operate in Banks - Regional, which has 329 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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