Is NP or WDH more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) and Waterdrop Inc. (WDH) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. NP has a Quality of Company score of 6.6/10 while WDH scores 8.8/10.

Which is a better buy — NP or WDH?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do NP and WDH valuations compare?

NP at $28.07 and WDH at $1.53 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

NP vs WDH Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

NP

Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.

Quality

6.6

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$28.07

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

WDH

Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service

Waterdrop Inc.

Quality

8.8

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$1.53

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	NP Fair Value	NP Upside	WDH Fair Value	WDH Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.83	-93.5%	$1.74	+13.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$0.43	-98.5%	$1.62	+6.0%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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NP vs WDH — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

WDH scores higher with a 8.8/10 quality rating vs NP's 6.6/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) and Waterdrop Inc. (WDH) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

NP currently trades at $28.07 with a QOC of 6.6/10, while WDH trades at $1.53 with a QOC of 8.8/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).