Is NOG or OVV more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) and Ovintiv Inc. (DE) (OVV) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. NOG has a Quality of Company score of 6.5/10 while OVV scores 5.4/10.

Which is a better buy — NOG or OVV?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do NOG and OVV valuations compare?

NOG at $21.77 and OVV at $56.04 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

NOG vs OVV Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

NOG

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

Quality

6.5

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$21.77

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

OVV

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Ovintiv Inc. (DE)

Quality

5.4

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$56.04

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	NOG Fair Value	NOG Upside	OVV Fair Value	OVV Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	—	—	$52.71	-5.9%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$33.70	-41.7%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$19.79	-17.3%	$55.35	-6.0%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$103.97	+377.6%	$249.17	+344.6%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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NOG vs OVV — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

NOG scores higher with a 6.5/10 quality rating vs OVV's 5.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) and Ovintiv Inc. (DE) (OVV) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

NOG currently trades at $21.77 with a QOC of 6.5/10, while OVV trades at $56.04 with a QOC of 5.4/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).