Is NLY or NREF more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) and NexPoint Real Estate Finance, I (NREF) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. NLY has a Quality of Company score of 7.4/10 while NREF scores 6.8/10.

Which is a better buy — NLY or NREF?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do NLY and NREF valuations compare?

NLY at $21.85 and NREF at $15.61 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

NLY vs NREF Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

NLY

Real Estate Investment Trusts

Annaly Capital Management Inc.

Quality

7.4

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$21.85

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

NREF

Real Estate Investment Trusts

NexPoint Real Estate Finance, I

Quality

6.8

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$15.61

Last close

Models

8/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	NLY Fair Value	NLY Upside	NREF Fair Value	NREF Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$14.24	-34.8%	$18.26	+19.8%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$9.53	-58.2%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$112.04	+412.8%	$39.05	+150.1%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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NLY vs NREF — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

NLY scores higher with a 7.4/10 quality rating vs NREF's 6.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) and NexPoint Real Estate Finance, I (NREF) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

NLY currently trades at $21.85 with a QOC of 7.4/10, while NREF trades at $15.61 with a QOC of 6.8/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).