Is NICM or RIO more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Nicola Mining Inc. (NICM) and Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. NICM has a Quality of Company score of 1.7/10 while RIO scores 2.2/10.

Which is a better buy — NICM or RIO?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do NICM and RIO valuations compare?

NICM at $6.65 and RIO at $106.39 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

NICM vs RIO Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

NICM

Metal Mining

Nicola Mining Inc.

Quality

1.7

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$6.65

Last close

Models

6/13

Active

RIO

Metal Mining

Rio Tinto Plc

Quality

2.2

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$106.39

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	NICM Fair Value	NICM Upside	RIO Fair Value	RIO Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.62	-75.6%	$28.86	-72.9%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$47.89	-54.6%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$0.35	-94.2%	$166.38	+56.4%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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NICM vs RIO — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

RIO scores higher with a 2.2/10 quality rating vs NICM's 1.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Nicola Mining Inc. (NICM) and Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

NICM currently trades at $6.65 with a QOC of 1.7/10, while RIO trades at $106.39 with a QOC of 2.2/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).