Is MVO or NOG more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares MV Oil Trust (MVO) and Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MVO has a Quality of Company score of 1.7/10 while NOG scores 6.5/10.

Which is a better buy — MVO or NOG?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MVO and NOG valuations compare?

MVO at $1.88 and NOG at $21.77 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MVO vs NOG Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MVO

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

MV Oil Trust

Quality

1.7

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$1.88

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

NOG

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

Quality

6.5

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$21.77

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MVO Fair Value	MVO Upside	NOG Fair Value	NOG Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$0.48	-74.7%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$2.09	+16.3%	$19.79	-17.3%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$7.48	+187.9%	$103.97	+377.6%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MVO vs NOG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

NOG scores higher with a 6.5/10 quality rating vs MVO's 1.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing MV Oil Trust (MVO) and Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MVO currently trades at $1.88 with a QOC of 1.7/10, while NOG trades at $21.77 with a QOC of 6.5/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).