Is MTB or NBTB more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) and NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MTB has a Quality of Company score of 8.5/10 while NBTB scores 8.4/10.

Which is a better buy — MTB or NBTB?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MTB and NBTB valuations compare?

MTB at $214.31 and NBTB at $46.25 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MTB vs NBTB Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MTB

Banks - Regional

M&T Bank Corporation

Quality

8.5

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$214.31

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

NBTB

Banks - Regional

NBT Bancorp Inc.

Quality

8.4

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$46.25

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MTB Fair Value	MTB Upside	NBTB Fair Value	NBTB Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$115.71	-46.0%	$30.44	-34.2%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$182.07	-15.0%	$40.40	-12.6%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

🔒

Unlock Full 13-Model Comparison

Access all valuation models for MTB vs NBTB — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more.

Access Full Analysis — From $27/mo →

MTB vs NBTB — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

MTB scores higher with a 8.5/10 quality rating vs NBTB's 8.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) and NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MTB currently trades at $214.31 with a QOC of 8.5/10, while NBTB trades at $46.25 with a QOC of 8.4/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).