MSCI vs SPGI

MSCI Inc. vs S&P Global Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — SPGI scores higher on quality with 7.3/10 vs MSCI's 5.6/10. MSCI trades at $630.27 while SPGI trades at $417.46. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

MSCI

Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
MSCI Inc.
Quality
5.6
out of 10
Value Trap
23
SAFE
Price
$630.27
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

SPGI

Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
S&P Global Inc.
Quality
7.3
out of 10
Value Trap
31
LOW
Price
$417.46
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
MSCI
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models
SPGI
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models

MSCI vs SPGI — Fair Value Comparison

MSCI
$0$248$496$744 Price$630.27 Bayesian …$37.96 (-94.0%) Earnings …$52.86 (-91.6%)
SPGI
$0$164$328$493 Price$417.46 Bayesian …$110.72 (-73.5%) Earnings …$85.06 (-79.6%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType MSCI Fair ValueMSCI Upside SPGI Fair ValueSPGI Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $37.96 -94.0% $110.72 -73.5%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $52.86 -91.6% $85.06 -79.6%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

MSCI vs SPGI — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

SPGI scores higher with a 7.3/10 quality rating vs MSCI's 5.6/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do MSCI and SPGI Valuations Compare?

At $630.27, MSCI trades +94.0% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $37.96, while SPGI at $417.46 trades +73.5% above its estimate of $110.72. MSCI shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: MSCI vs SPGI

MSCI earns a Quality of Company score of 5.6/10 compared to SPGI's 7.3/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: MSCI vs SPGI

MSCI carries a SAFE value trap risk (23/100) while SPGI shows LOW risk (31/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

Both MSCI and SPGI operate in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges, which has 13 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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