Is MP or NICM more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares MP Materials Corp. (MP) and Nicola Mining Inc. (NICM) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MP has a Quality of Company score of 6.8/10 while NICM scores 1.7/10.

Which is a better buy — MP or NICM?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MP and NICM valuations compare?

MP at $64.70 and NICM at $6.65 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MP vs NICM Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MP

Metal Mining

MP Materials Corp.

Quality

6.8

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$64.70

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

NICM

Metal Mining

Nicola Mining Inc.

Quality

1.7

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$6.65

Last close

Models

6/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MP Fair Value	MP Upside	NICM Fair Value	NICM Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$13.81	-78.7%	$1.62	-75.6%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$3.58	-94.6%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$1.30	-97.9%	$0.35	-94.2%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MP vs NICM — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

MP scores higher with a 6.8/10 quality rating vs NICM's 1.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing MP Materials Corp. (MP) and Nicola Mining Inc. (NICM) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MP currently trades at $64.70 with a QOC of 6.8/10, while NICM trades at $6.65 with a QOC of 1.7/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).