Is LYG or NWG more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LYG) and NatWest Group plc (NWG) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. LYG has a Quality of Company score of 1.9/10 while NWG scores 7.6/10.

Which is a better buy — LYG or NWG?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do LYG and NWG valuations compare?

LYG at $5.47 and NWG at $16.04 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

LYG vs NWG Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

LYG

Commercial Banks, NEC

Lloyds Banking Group Plc

Quality

1.9

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$5.47

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

NWG

Commercial Banks, NEC

NatWest Group plc

Quality

7.6

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$16.04

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	LYG Fair Value	LYG Upside	NWG Fair Value	NWG Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.79	-67.2%	$68.48	+326.9%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$2.42	-54.7%	$76.02	+374.0%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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LYG vs NWG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

NWG scores higher with a 7.6/10 quality rating vs LYG's 1.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LYG) and NatWest Group plc (NWG) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

LYG currently trades at $5.47 with a QOC of 1.9/10, while NWG trades at $16.04 with a QOC of 7.6/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).