Is LYB or ORGN more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) and Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. LYB has a Quality of Company score of 6.6/10 while ORGN scores 5.1/10.

Which is a better buy — LYB or ORGN?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do LYB and ORGN valuations compare?

LYB at $66.65 and ORGN at $1.49 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

LYB vs ORGN Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

LYB

Industrial Organic Chemicals

LyondellBasell Industries NV

Quality

6.6

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$66.65

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

ORGN

Industrial Organic Chemicals

Origin Materials, Inc.

Quality

5.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$1.49

Last close

Models

6/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	LYB Fair Value	LYB Upside	ORGN Fair Value	ORGN Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$68.23	+2.4%	$0.89	-40.0%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$13.46	-79.8%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$78.09	+17.2%	$7.49	+403.0%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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LYB vs ORGN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

LYB scores higher with a 6.6/10 quality rating vs ORGN's 5.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) and Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

LYB currently trades at $66.65 with a QOC of 6.6/10, while ORGN trades at $1.49 with a QOC of 5.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).