Is LNZA or ORGN more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) and Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. LNZA has a Quality of Company score of 5.2/10 while ORGN scores 5.1/10.

Which is a better buy — LNZA or ORGN?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do LNZA and ORGN valuations compare?

LNZA at $6.16 and ORGN at $1.49 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

LNZA vs ORGN Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

LNZA

Industrial Organic Chemicals

LanzaTech Global, Inc.

Quality

5.2

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$6.16

Last close

Models

8/13

Active

ORGN

Industrial Organic Chemicals

Origin Materials, Inc.

Quality

5.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$1.49

Last close

Models

6/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	LNZA Fair Value	LNZA Upside	ORGN Fair Value	ORGN Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.20	-80.6%	$0.89	-40.0%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$7.10	+15.3%	—	—
PWERM	Option-Based	$9.05	+47.0%	$7.49	+403.0%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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LNZA vs ORGN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

LNZA scores higher with a 5.2/10 quality rating vs ORGN's 5.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) and Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

LNZA currently trades at $6.16 with a QOC of 5.2/10, while ORGN trades at $1.49 with a QOC of 5.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).