Is HWBK or KEY more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) and KeyCorp (KEY) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. HWBK has a Quality of Company score of 8.9/10 while KEY scores 7.8/10.

Which is a better buy — HWBK or KEY?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do HWBK and KEY valuations compare?

HWBK at $36.69 and KEY at $21.33 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

HWBK vs KEY Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

HWBK

National Commercial Banks

Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc.

Quality

8.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$36.69

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

KEY

National Commercial Banks

KeyCorp

Quality

7.8

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$21.33

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	HWBK Fair Value	HWBK Upside	KEY Fair Value	KEY Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$32.66	-11.0%	$2.32	-89.1%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$39.95	+8.9%	$9.91	-53.6%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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HWBK vs KEY — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

HWBK scores higher with a 8.9/10 quality rating vs KEY's 7.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) and KeyCorp (KEY) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

HWBK currently trades at $36.69 with a QOC of 8.9/10, while KEY trades at $21.33 with a QOC of 7.8/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).