Is HSDT or HTGC more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Solana Company (HSDT) and Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. HSDT has a Quality of Company score of 5.3/10 while HTGC scores 6.8/10.

Which is a better buy — HSDT or HTGC?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do HSDT and HTGC valuations compare?

HSDT at $2.04 and HTGC at $15.42 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

HSDT vs HTGC Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

HSDT

Asset Management

Solana Company

Quality

5.3

out of 10

Value Trap

WARN

Price

$2.04

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

HTGC

Asset Management

Hercules Capital, Inc.

Quality

6.8

out of 10

Value Trap

WARN

Price

$15.42

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	HSDT Fair Value	HSDT Upside	HTGC Fair Value	HTGC Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$0.59	-71.2%	$2.68	-83.0%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$2.35	+10.8%	$1.71	-89.6%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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HSDT vs HTGC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

HTGC scores higher with a 6.8/10 quality rating vs HSDT's 5.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Solana Company (HSDT) and Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

HSDT currently trades at $2.04 with a QOC of 5.3/10, while HTGC trades at $15.42 with a QOC of 6.8/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).