Is HRTG or KG more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Heritage Insurance Holdings, In (HRTG) and Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. HRTG has a Quality of Company score of 8.0/10 while KG scores 6.9/10.

Which is a better buy — HRTG or KG?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do HRTG and KG valuations compare?

HRTG at $21.68 and KG at $11.24 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

HRTG vs KG Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

HRTG

Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

Heritage Insurance Holdings, In

Quality

8.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$21.68

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

KG

Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

Kestrel Group, Ltd.

Quality

6.9

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$11.24

Last close

Models

5/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	HRTG Fair Value	HRTG Upside	KG Fair Value	KG Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$52.09	+140.3%	$42.20	+275.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$17.96	-17.1%	$49.84	+343.4%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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HRTG vs KG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

HRTG scores higher with a 8.0/10 quality rating vs KG's 6.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Heritage Insurance Holdings, In (HRTG) and Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

HRTG currently trades at $21.68 with a QOC of 8.0/10, while KG trades at $11.24 with a QOC of 6.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).