Is HP or HPK more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP) and HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. HP has a Quality of Company score of 6.1/10 while HPK scores 7.3/10.

Which is a better buy — HP or HPK?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do HP and HPK valuations compare?

HP at $38.15 and HPK at $7.10 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

HP vs HPK Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

HP

Drilling Oil & Gas Wells

Helmerich & Payne, Inc.

Quality

6.1

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$38.15

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

HPK

Drilling Oil & Gas Wells

HighPeak Energy, Inc.

Quality

7.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$7.10

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	HP Fair Value	HP Upside	HPK Fair Value	HPK Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.09	-97.3%	—	—
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$12.16	+71.3%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$15.54	-59.5%	$6.88	-3.1%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$136.33	+257.3%	$3.72	-47.6%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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HP vs HPK — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

HPK scores higher with a 7.3/10 quality rating vs HP's 6.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP) and HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

HP currently trades at $38.15 with a QOC of 6.1/10, while HPK trades at $7.10 with a QOC of 7.3/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).