Is HBNC or HFWA more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) and Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. HBNC has a Quality of Company score of 7.3/10 while HFWA scores 8.3/10.

Which is a better buy — HBNC or HFWA?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do HBNC and HFWA valuations compare?

HBNC at $18.48 and HFWA at $27.34 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

HBNC vs HFWA Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

HBNC

Banks - Regional

Horizon Bancorp, Inc.

Quality

7.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$18.48

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

HFWA

Banks - Regional

Heritage Financial Corporation

Quality

8.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$27.34

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	HBNC Fair Value	HBNC Upside	HFWA Fair Value	HFWA Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$5.97	-67.7%	$14.28	-47.8%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$7.94	-56.7%	$20.99	-23.2%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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HBNC vs HFWA — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

HFWA scores higher with a 8.3/10 quality rating vs HBNC's 7.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) and Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

HBNC currently trades at $18.48 with a QOC of 7.3/10, while HFWA trades at $27.34 with a QOC of 8.3/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).