HBCP vs HBNC

Home Bancorp, Inc. vs Horizon Bancorp, Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — HBCP scores higher on quality with 9.0/10 vs HBNC's 7.3/10. HBCP trades at $64.80 while HBNC trades at $18.64. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

HBCP

Banks - Regional
Home Bancorp, Inc.
Quality
9.0
out of 10
Value Trap
8
SAFE
Price
$64.80
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
VS

HBNC

Banks - Regional
Horizon Bancorp, Inc.
Quality
7.3
out of 10
Value Trap
20
SAFE
Price
$18.64
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
HBCP
Earnings Power Value sees +8.7% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
HBNC
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models

HBCP vs HBNC — Fair Value Comparison

HBCP
$0$28$55$83 Price$64.80 Bayesian …$51.15 (-21.1%) Earnings …$70.42 (+8.7%)
HBNC
$0$7$15$22 Price$18.64 Bayesian …$5.95 (-68.1%) Earnings …$7.94 (-56.7%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType HBCP Fair ValueHBCP Upside HBNC Fair ValueHBNC Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $51.15 -21.1% $5.95 -68.1%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $70.42 +8.7% $7.94 -56.7%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

HBCP vs HBNC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

HBCP scores higher with a 9.0/10 quality rating vs HBNC's 7.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do HBCP and HBNC Valuations Compare?

At $64.80, HBCP trades +21.1% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $51.15, while HBNC at $18.64 trades +68.1% above its estimate of $5.95. HBNC shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: HBCP vs HBNC

HBCP earns a Quality of Company score of 9.0/10 compared to HBNC's 7.3/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: HBCP vs HBNC

HBCP carries a SAFE value trap risk (8/100) while HBNC shows SAFE risk (20/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Banks - Regional

Both HBCP and HBNC operate in Banks - Regional, which has 329 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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