Is FLY or FTAI more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) and FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. FLY has a Quality of Company score of 6.5/10 while FTAI scores 8.0/10.

Which is a better buy — FLY or FTAI?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do FLY and FTAI valuations compare?

FLY at $49.37 and FTAI at $262.78 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

FLY vs FTAI Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

FLY

Aerospace & Defense

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

Quality

6.5

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$49.37

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

FTAI

Aerospace & Defense

FTAI Aviation Ltd.

Quality

8.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$262.78

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	FLY Fair Value	FLY Upside	FTAI Fair Value	FTAI Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$12.55	-74.6%	$5.51	-97.9%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$9.38	-72.3%	$30.20	-88.5%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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FLY vs FTAI — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

FTAI scores higher with a 8.0/10 quality rating vs FLY's 6.5/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) and FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

FLY currently trades at $49.37 with a QOC of 6.5/10, while FTAI trades at $262.78 with a QOC of 8.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).