Is FERG or MSM more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) and MSC Industrial Direct Company, (MSM) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. FERG has a Quality of Company score of 9.0/10 while MSM scores 8.3/10.

Which is a better buy — FERG or MSM?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do FERG and MSM valuations compare?

FERG at $226.49 and MSM at $109.78 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

FERG vs MSM Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

FERG

Industrial Distribution

Ferguson Enterprises Inc.

Quality

9.0

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$226.49

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

MSM

Industrial Distribution

MSC Industrial Direct Company,

Quality

8.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$109.78

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	FERG Fair Value	FERG Upside	MSM Fair Value	MSM Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$174.74	-22.8%	$40.25	-63.3%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$95.16	-58.0%	$34.97	-68.1%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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FERG vs MSM — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

FERG scores higher with a 9.0/10 quality rating vs MSM's 8.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) and MSC Industrial Direct Company, (MSM) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

FERG currently trades at $226.49 with a QOC of 9.0/10, while MSM trades at $109.78 with a QOC of 8.3/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).