Is EVTL or FLY more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Vertical Aerospace Ltd. (EVTL) and Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. EVTL has a Quality of Company score of 4.3/10 while FLY scores 6.5/10.

Which is a better buy — EVTL or FLY?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do EVTL and FLY valuations compare?

EVTL at $2.81 and FLY at $49.37 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

EVTL vs FLY Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

EVTL

Aerospace & Defense

Vertical Aerospace Ltd.

Quality

4.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$2.81

Last close

Models

5/13

Active

FLY

Aerospace & Defense

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

Quality

6.5

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$49.37

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	EVTL Fair Value	EVTL Upside	FLY Fair Value	FLY Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$13.30	+373.2%	$12.55	-74.6%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$9.38	-72.3%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$5.30	+88.7%	$49.09	-0.6%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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EVTL vs FLY — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

FLY scores higher with a 6.5/10 quality rating vs EVTL's 4.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Vertical Aerospace Ltd. (EVTL) and Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

EVTL currently trades at $2.81 with a QOC of 4.3/10, while FLY trades at $49.37 with a QOC of 6.5/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).