Is EPM or EXE more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) and Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. EPM has a Quality of Company score of 6.8/10 while EXE scores 8.7/10.

Which is a better buy — EPM or EXE?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do EPM and EXE valuations compare?

EPM at $4.24 and EXE at $92.98 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

EPM vs EXE Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

EPM

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Evolution Petroleum Corporation

Quality

6.8

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$4.24

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

EXE

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Expand Energy Corporation

Quality

8.7

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$92.98

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	EPM Fair Value	EPM Upside	EXE Fair Value	EXE Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$10.97	+158.7%	$77.29	-16.9%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$0.39	-91.7%	$124.11	+33.5%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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EPM vs EXE — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

EXE scores higher with a 8.7/10 quality rating vs EPM's 6.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) and Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

EPM currently trades at $4.24 with a QOC of 6.8/10, while EXE trades at $92.98 with a QOC of 8.7/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).