Is EC or EP more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) and Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. EC has a Quality of Company score of 1.7/10 while EP scores 5.5/10.

Which is a better buy — EC or EP?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do EC and EP valuations compare?

EC at $14.61 and EP at $2.54 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

EC vs EP Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

EC

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Ecopetrol S.A.

Quality

1.7

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$14.61

Last close

Models

6/13

Active

EP

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Empire Petroleum Corporation

Quality

5.5

out of 10

Value Trap

WARN

Price

$2.54

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	EC Fair Value	EC Upside	EP Fair Value	EP Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$4.66	-68.1%	$0.25	-90.3%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$4.05	-70.6%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	—	—	$0.14	-94.7%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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EC vs EP — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

EP scores higher with a 5.5/10 quality rating vs EC's 1.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) and Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

EC currently trades at $14.61 with a QOC of 1.7/10, while EP trades at $2.54 with a QOC of 5.5/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).