DOW vs MEOH

Dow Inc. vs Methanex Corporation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — MEOH scores higher on quality with 8.2/10 vs DOW's 6.8/10. DOW trades at $34.72 while MEOH trades at $62.00. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

DOW

Chemicals
Dow Inc.
Quality
6.8
out of 10
Value Trap
20
SAFE
Price
$34.72
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

MEOH

Chemicals
Methanex Corporation
Quality
8.2
out of 10
Value Trap
18
SAFE
Price
$62.00
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
DOW
Bayesian DCF sees +97.3% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
MEOH
Bayesian DCF sees +80.0% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

DOW vs MEOH — Fair Value Comparison

DOW
$0$27$54$81 Price$34.72 Bayesian …$68.51 (+97.3%) Earnings …$11.41 (-67.1%)
MEOH
$0$44$88$132 Price$62.00 Bayesian …$111.57 (+80.0%) Earnings …$69.68 (+12.4%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType DOW Fair ValueDOW Upside MEOH Fair ValueMEOH Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $68.51 +97.3% $111.57 +80.0%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $11.41 -67.1% $69.68 +12.4%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

DOW vs MEOH — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

MEOH scores higher with a 8.2/10 quality rating vs DOW's 6.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do DOW and MEOH Valuations Compare?

At $34.72, DOW trades +97.3% below its Bayesian DCF fair value of $68.51, while MEOH at $62.00 trades +80.0% below its estimate of $111.57. DOW shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: DOW vs MEOH

DOW earns a Quality of Company score of 6.8/10 compared to MEOH's 8.2/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: DOW vs MEOH

DOW carries a SAFE value trap risk (20/100) while MEOH shows SAFE risk (18/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Chemicals

Both DOW and MEOH operate in Chemicals, which has 18 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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