CTGO vs FSM

Contango Silver & Gold Inc. vs Fortuna Mining Corp. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — FSM scores higher on quality with 8.8/10 vs CTGO's 5.2/10. CTGO trades at $19.71 while FSM trades at $9.82. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

CTGO

Gold
Contango Silver & Gold Inc.
Quality
5.2
out of 10
Value Trap
24
SAFE
Price
$19.71
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

FSM

Gold
Fortuna Mining Corp.
Quality
8.8
out of 10
Value Trap
24
SAFE
Price
$9.82
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
CTGO
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models
FSM
Bayesian DCF sees +57.2% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

CTGO vs FSM — Fair Value Comparison

CTGO
$0$8$16$23 Price$19.71 Bayesian …$18.85 (-4.4%) Earnings …$17.10 (-13.3%)
FSM
$0$6$12$18 Price$9.82 Bayesian …$15.44 (+57.2%) Earnings …$10.78 (+9.8%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType CTGO Fair ValueCTGO Upside FSM Fair ValueFSM Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $18.85 -4.4% $15.44 +57.2%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $17.10 -13.3% $10.78 +9.8%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

CTGO vs FSM — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

FSM scores higher with a 8.8/10 quality rating vs CTGO's 5.2/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do CTGO and FSM Valuations Compare?

At $19.71, CTGO trades +4.4% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $18.85, while FSM at $9.82 trades +57.2% below its estimate of $15.44. FSM shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: CTGO vs FSM

CTGO earns a Quality of Company score of 5.2/10 compared to FSM's 8.8/10. This is a significant quality gap — the higher-scoring company demonstrates materially stronger fundamentals across profitability, growth consistency, and balance sheet health. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: CTGO vs FSM

CTGO carries a SAFE value trap risk (24/100) while FSM shows SAFE risk (24/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Gold

Both CTGO and FSM operate in Gold, which has 50 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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