COST vs TGT

Costco Wholesale Corporation vs Target Corporation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — COST scores higher on quality with 9.8/10 vs TGT's 8.3/10. COST trades at $954.27 while TGT trades at $123.18. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

COST

Discount Stores
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Quality
9.8
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$954.27
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
VS

TGT

Discount Stores
Target Corporation
Quality
8.3
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$123.18
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
COST
Quality Score 9.8/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
TGT
Quality Score 8.3/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

COST vs TGT — Fair Value Comparison

COST
$0$375$751$1K Price$954.27 Bayesian …$272.35 (-71.5%) Earnings …$176.04 (-81.6%)
TGT
$0$48$97$145 Price$123.18 Bayesian …$67.24 (-45.4%) Earnings …$18.30 (-85.1%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType COST Fair ValueCOST Upside TGT Fair ValueTGT Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $272.35 -71.5% $67.24 -45.4%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $176.04 -81.6% $18.30 -85.1%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

COST vs TGT — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

COST scores higher with a 9.8/10 quality rating vs TGT's 8.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do COST and TGT Valuations Compare?

At $954.27, COST trades +71.5% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $272.35, while TGT at $123.18 trades +45.4% above its estimate of $67.24. COST shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: COST vs TGT

COST earns a Quality of Company score of 9.8/10 compared to TGT's 8.3/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: COST vs TGT

COST carries a SAFE value trap risk (6/100) while TGT shows SAFE risk (6/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Discount Stores

Both COST and TGT operate in Discount Stores, which has 8 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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