Is CMTG or CWD more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. (CMTG) and CaliberCos Inc. (CWD) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. CMTG has a Quality of Company score of 4.9/10 while CWD scores 4.3/10.

Which is a better buy — CMTG or CWD?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do CMTG and CWD valuations compare?

CMTG at $2.43 and CWD at $1.00 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

CMTG vs CWD Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

CMTG

Real Estate

Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc.

Quality

4.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$2.43

Last close

Models

3/13

Active

CWD

Real Estate

CaliberCos Inc.

Quality

4.3

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$1.00

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	CMTG Fair Value	CMTG Upside	CWD Fair Value	CWD Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	—	—	$1.14	+4.6%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$0.09	-95.5%	$0.05	-95.1%
PWERM	Option-Based	$4.82	+98.2%	—	—
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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CMTG vs CWD — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

CMTG scores higher with a 4.9/10 quality rating vs CWD's 4.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. (CMTG) and CaliberCos Inc. (CWD) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

CMTG currently trades at $2.43 with a QOC of 4.9/10, while CWD trades at $1.00 with a QOC of 4.3/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).