CARG vs KMX Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

Quick Summary — CARG scores higher on quality with 9.4/10 vs KMX's 5.9/10. CARG trades at $28.64 while KMX trades at $43.93. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

CARG

Auto & Truck Dealerships

CarGurus, Inc.

Quality

9.4

out of 10

Value Trap

26

LOW

Price

$28.64

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

VS

KMX

Auto & Truck Dealerships

CarMax Inc

Quality

5.9

out of 10

Value Trap

20

SAFE

Price

$43.93

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

CARG

Quality Score 9.4/10 — top tier

Limited to 2/13 visible models

KMX

First Chicago sees +119.7% upside

Limited to 2/13 visible models

CARG vs KMX — Fair Value Comparison

CARG

KMX

Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	CARG Fair Value	CARG Upside	KMX Fair Value	KMX Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$26.94	-5.9%	—	—
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$18.38	-35.8%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$39.22	+36.9%	$96.51	+119.7%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	—	—	$8.09	-78.9%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

CARG vs KMX — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

CARG scores higher with a 9.4/10 quality rating vs KMX's 5.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do CARG and KMX Valuations Compare?

CARG currently trades at $28.64 while KMX trades at $43.93. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily for both companies.

Quality of Company: CARG vs KMX

CARG earns a Quality of Company score of 9.4/10 compared to KMX's 5.9/10. This is a significant quality gap — the higher-scoring company demonstrates materially stronger fundamentals across profitability, growth consistency, and balance sheet health. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: CARG vs KMX

CARG carries a LOW value trap risk (26/100) while KMX shows SAFE risk (20/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Auto & Truck Dealerships

Both CARG and KMX operate in Auto & Truck Dealerships, which has 23 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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CARG

View Full CarGurus, Inc. Analysis →

KMX

View Full CarMax Inc Analysis →