Is BIRK or FOSL more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) and Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. BIRK has a Quality of Company score of 8.1/10 while FOSL scores 5.5/10.

Which is a better buy — BIRK or FOSL?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do BIRK and FOSL valuations compare?

BIRK at $44.07 and FOSL at $4.50 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

BIRK vs FOSL Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

BIRK

Footwear & Accessories

Birkenstock Holding plc

Quality

8.1

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$44.07

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

FOSL

Footwear & Accessories

Fossil Group, Inc.

Quality

5.5

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$4.50

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	BIRK Fair Value	BIRK Upside	FOSL Fair Value	FOSL Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$34.95	-20.7%	$7.44	+68.0%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$22.57	-48.8%	$0.90	-80.0%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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BIRK vs FOSL — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

BIRK scores higher with a 8.1/10 quality rating vs FOSL's 5.5/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) and Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

BIRK currently trades at $44.07 with a QOC of 8.1/10, while FOSL trades at $4.50 with a QOC of 5.5/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).