Is ASTE or CAT more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE) and Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ASTE has a Quality of Company score of 9.0/10 while CAT scores 9.4/10.

Which is a better buy — ASTE or CAT?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ASTE and CAT valuations compare?

ASTE at $50.54 and CAT at $887.67 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ASTE vs CAT Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ASTE

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Astec Industries, Inc.

Quality

9.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$50.54

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

CAT

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Caterpillar, Inc.

Quality

9.4

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$887.67

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ASTE Fair Value	ASTE Upside	CAT Fair Value	CAT Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$19.50	-61.4%	$271.66	-69.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$9.91	-80.4%	$105.47	-88.1%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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ASTE vs CAT — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

CAT scores higher with a 9.4/10 quality rating vs ASTE's 9.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE) and Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ASTE currently trades at $50.54 with a QOC of 9.0/10, while CAT trades at $887.67 with a QOC of 9.4/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).