Is ARDX or ARVN more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) and Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ARDX has a Quality of Company score of 6.1/10 while ARVN scores 6.9/10.

Which is a better buy — ARDX or ARVN?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ARDX and ARVN valuations compare?

ARDX at $6.04 and ARVN at $8.98 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ARDX vs ARVN Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ARDX

Pharmaceutical Preparations

Ardelyx, Inc.

Quality

6.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$6.04

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

ARVN

Pharmaceutical Preparations

Arvinas, Inc.

Quality

6.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$8.98

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ARDX Fair Value	ARDX Upside	ARVN Fair Value	ARVN Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.41	-76.6%	$2.49	-72.3%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$1.72	-75.0%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$0.51	-92.6%	$1.47	-83.8%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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ARDX vs ARVN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ARVN scores higher with a 6.9/10 quality rating vs ARDX's 6.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) and Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ARDX currently trades at $6.04 with a QOC of 6.1/10, while ARVN trades at $8.98 with a QOC of 6.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).