Is ARCT or ARDX more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings (ARCT) and Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ARCT has a Quality of Company score of 6.7/10 while ARDX scores 6.1/10.

Which is a better buy — ARCT or ARDX?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ARCT and ARDX valuations compare?

ARCT at $7.92 and ARDX at $6.25 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ARCT vs ARDX Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ARCT

Biotechnology

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings

Quality

6.7

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$7.92

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

ARDX

Biotechnology

Ardelyx, Inc.

Quality

6.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$6.25

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ARCT Fair Value	ARCT Upside	ARDX Fair Value	ARDX Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$5.25	-33.8%	$1.41	-77.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$1.72	-75.0%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$1.95	-72.2%	$0.51	-92.6%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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ARCT vs ARDX — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ARCT scores higher with a 6.7/10 quality rating vs ARDX's 6.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings (ARCT) and Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ARCT currently trades at $7.92 with a QOC of 6.7/10, while ARDX trades at $6.25 with a QOC of 6.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).